8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8) Seminar: Current and Future Key

Date : 25 August 2023

Location : Uluwatu 6
8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8) Seminar: Current and Future Key

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) includes ten Member States – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – that are home to about 667 million people, accounting for about 8.7% of the total global population. In 2022, the real combined GDP of the ASEAN Member States (AMS) is estimated to reach USD 8.5 trillion (2017 constant, PPP) and is expected to continue expanding as much as 3.6 times by 2050 . Fuelling that growth will require significant amounts of energy.

These population and economic growth trends, combined with a shift from agriculture towards greater industrialisation and service-based economies, have defined the ASEAN region's development trajectory. They also impose numerous challenges, including how to meet the fast-growing energy demand. Ensuring prosperity and resilience across the region will require careful consideration of energy equality and environmental sustainability concerns. To achieve this, AMS are focusing on four priorities: energy security, accessibility, affordability, and sustainability, as outlined in the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016–2025 , the regional blueprint for the energy sector in the framework of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The APAEC plays a vital role in setting a sustainable future for the ASEAN energy landscape.

In order to equip the process of translating the national policies and plan, a regional energy Outlook becomes very important to achieve the aspirational targets. In Outlook, several projection scenarios are introduced to compare different possibilities. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), as the intergovernmental organisation within the ASEAN structure that represents the ten AMS' interests in the energy sector, frequently publishes ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO) as its flagship publication. Having a think tank role, ACE has published seven series of AEO, constantly improving its capacity to produce Outlook internally.

The last publication, AEO7, explores four scenarios – three of which were modelled in AEO5 and AEO7 as well, plus a new scenario focused on the least cost option in the power sector. The four scenarios explore different strategies and escalating levels of ambition and their implications: Baseline Scenario, AMS Targets Scenario (ATS), APAEC Targets Scenario (APS), and Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario. To extend this accomplishment, ACE plans to develop AEO8 to provide deeper analysis and recommendations, especially as the region is approaching the 2025 targets and preparing for the next cycle of APAEC. This next edition of AEO is expected to be launched in September 2024.

Time

Agenda

14:00 – 14:20

Welcome Remarks

  • Energy Market Authority (EMA), Singapore, as the Chair of Regional Energy Policy and Planning Sub-Sector Network
  • Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan
  • ACE Group Photo
  • Mr. Jonathan Goh Kok Chye, Director of External Relations, EMA
  • Mr. HIRAI Shinji , Deputy Commissioner for International Affairs Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE), METI
  • Dr. Zulfikar Yurnaidi, Manager of Energy Modelling and Policy Planning (MPP), ACE"

14:20 – 14:30

AEO8 Introduction and Plans

  • AEO roles in regional energy cooperation
  • Development of AEO8 – timeline, key activities and milestones
  • Overall status of data, scenarios, and modelling progress
  • Short introduction of AMS Working Groups by the AEO8 team

Ms. Rika Safrina, Senior Analyst of MPP, ACE

14.30 – 14.40

AEO7 Modelling Findings:

  • Supply and Demand
  • Regional Results

Ms. Amira Bilqis, Analyst of MPP, ACE

14.40 – 15.55

External Expert Session (10 mins presentation each)

  • APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, Glen E. Sweetnam, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
  • Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, Jun Takashiro, International Energy Agency (IEA)
  • ASEAN RE Outlook, Nicholas Wagner, International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
  • SLife Cycle Assessment of Energy Systems, Prof. Shabbir Gheewala, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT)
  • Modelling in Transportation Sector, Dr. Nuwong Chollacoop, National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) Q&A (25 mins)"

Moderator:
Dr. Ambiyah Abdullah, Senior Research Analyst of MPP, ACE

15:55 – 16:00

Way Forward and Closing
Ms. Rika Safrina, Senior Analyst of MPP, ACE