The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) includes ten Member States – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – that are home to about 667 million people, accounting for about 8.7% of the total global population. In 2022, the real combined GDP of the ASEAN Member States (AMS) is estimated to reach USD 8.5 trillion (2017 constant, PPP) and is expected to continue expanding as much as 3.6 times by 2050 . Fuelling that growth will require significant amounts of energy.
These population and economic growth trends, combined with a shift from agriculture towards greater industrialisation and service-based economies, have defined the ASEAN region's development trajectory. They also impose numerous challenges, including how to meet the fast-growing energy demand. Ensuring prosperity and resilience across the region will require careful consideration of energy equality and environmental sustainability concerns. To achieve this, AMS are focusing on four priorities: energy security, accessibility, affordability, and sustainability, as outlined in the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016–2025 , the regional blueprint for the energy sector in the framework of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The APAEC plays a vital role in setting a sustainable future for the ASEAN energy landscape.
In order to equip the process of translating the national policies and plan, a regional energy Outlook becomes very important to achieve the aspirational targets. In Outlook, several projection scenarios are introduced to compare different possibilities. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), as the intergovernmental organisation within the ASEAN structure that represents the ten AMS' interests in the energy sector, frequently publishes ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO) as its flagship publication. Having a think tank role, ACE has published seven series of AEO, constantly improving its capacity to produce Outlook internally.
The last publication, AEO7, explores four scenarios – three of which were modelled in AEO5 and AEO7 as well, plus a new scenario focused on the least cost option in the power sector. The four scenarios explore different strategies and escalating levels of ambition and their implications: Baseline Scenario, AMS Targets Scenario (ATS), APAEC Targets Scenario (APS), and Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario. To extend this accomplishment, ACE plans to develop AEO8 to provide deeper analysis and recommendations, especially as the region is approaching the 2025 targets and preparing for the next cycle of APAEC. This next edition of AEO is expected to be launched in September 2024.
AEO8 Introduction and Plans
AEO7 Modelling Findings:
External Expert Session (10 mins presentation each)
Way Forward and Closing
Ms. Rika Safrina, Senior Analyst of MPP, ACE